As has already been acknowledged, TLFs don’t do mafffs, numbers and wotnot. We do words. But following a further defeat for the mighty Saints and the news that the new gaffer thinks we need to win 7 or 8 games to avoid the invidious drop, I did feel obliged to bite the calculator-shaped bullet, grab the logarithm table by the horns and ponder our chances in a scientific fashion (no sniggering at the back, thank you).
Ahem…so let us take the following known integers (see I can do this mathematical sh1t) and assume that:
a = 12 games left
b = √ bacon fries consumed
c = average match day TLF Stella consumption ²
x = the points that will ensure safety
PIE = a meaty 3.14 (BOOMBOOM)
Now there are a number of high falutin’ theories that we could apply to work out what the Saints’ chances are.
Laws of probability seem a good place to start. Personally I eschew (BOOM!) Bertrand’s paradox (I’ve never trusted him). I’m tempted to apply the Central Limit Theorem to this conundrum but actually the Law of Large Numbers is very attractive….on the basis that I am assuming it is simple. If we score a larger number of goals than our opponents in seven or eight of our remaining games then we are safe.
Or should I apply the quadratic equation?
ax² + bx + c = 0
Oh? You don’t want me to actual work through that do you? You are clever people – DIY.
Professor TLF, emeritus professor of maffs at the University of WDRDN (we don’t really do numbers) does however ultimately favour the random theory – that we multiply the square route of the goalkeeper Joe Welch’s football boot size by the median points accumulation for the last three seasons, divided by the profit margin of the club shop cubed, and that will reveal that we might…..
…or we might not.
Pierre de Fermat Fox